F5 (TICKER: FFIV) F5 Inc Ffiv Ceo Francois Locoh Donou On Q3 2022 Results Earnings Call Transcript
F5, Inc. (NASDAQ:FFIV) Q3 2022 Results Conference Call July 25, 2022
4:30 PM ET
Company Participants
Suzanne DuLong - Investor Relations
Francois Locoh-Donou - President and Chief Executive Officer
Frank Pelzer - Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Conference Call Participants
Sami Badri - Credit Suisse
James Fish - Piper Sandler
Meta Marshall - Morgan Stanley
Tim Long - Barclays
Alex Henderson - Needham
Samik Chatterjee - JPMorgan
Rod Hall - Goldman Sachs
Amit Daryanani - Evercore
Jim Suva - Citigroup
Simon Leopold - Raymond James
Operator
Good afternoon and welcome to the F5, Inc. Third Quarter Fiscal 2022
Financial Results Conference Call. At this time, all participants'
lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise.
Following the presentation, we will conduct a question-and-answer
session and instructions on how queue up will be provided at that time.
As of note, today's conference call is being recorded. If anyone has
any objections, please disconnect at this time.
I would now like to turn the call over to Ms. Suzanne DuLong. Ma'am,
you may begin.
Suzanne DuLong
Hello and welcome. I am Suzanne DuLong, F5's Vice President of Investor
Relations. Francois Locoh-Donou, F5's President and CEO; and Frank
Pelzer, F5's Executive Vice President and CFO, will be making prepared
remarks on today's call. Other members of the F5 executive team are
also on hand to answer questions during the Q&A session.
A copy of today's press release is available on our website at f5.com,
where an archived version of today's audio will be available through
October 24, 2022. Visuals accompanying posted to our IR site at the
conclusion of the call. To access the replay of today's call by phone,
dial (888) 674-7070 or (416) 764-8692 and use meeting ID 468081. The
telephonic replay will be available through midnight Pacific Time, July
26, 2022. For additional information or follow-up questions, please
reach out to me directly at s.dulong@f5.com.
Our discussion today will contain forward-looking statements, which
include words such as believe, anticipate, expect to target. These
forward-looking statements involve uncertainties and risks that may
cause our actual results to differ materially from those expressed or
implied by these statements. Factors that may affect our results are
summarized in the press release announcing our financial results and
described in detail in our SEC filings. Please note that F5 has no duty
to update any information presented in this call.
With that, I will turn the call over to Francois.
Francois Locoh-Donou
Thank you, Suzanne, and hello, everyone. Thank you for joining us
today. In Q3, we delivered above the midpoint of our revenue guidance
and well above the top end of our non-GAAP EPS guidance. Software
growth of 38% drove 4% revenue growth year-over-year, partially
offsetting continued supply chain constraints for systems. Overall, we
delivered 5% product revenue growth. While supply chain challenges
continue to limit our ability to ship systems, our demand signals
remain strong, and we remain ahead of our initial FY '22 demand plan.
While we have not seen meaningful improvement in supply volumes in the
last three months, we also have not seen further deterioration. In
general, our suppliers' commitment held up better in Q3 than in
previous two quarters. Based on what we see today, we continue to
expect our ability to ship systems will improve during our second
quarter of fiscal 2023 as a result of our efforts to design out the
most constrained component and the additional capacity our key
suppliers expect beginning in the last calendar quarter of 2022. We
likewise continue to expect that fiscal Q1 2023 will be the low point
in systems revenue.
We continue to see our growth opportunity fundamentally tied to
applications to the growing number of apps as well as increased usage
and heightened business value. In Q3, we saw strong demand as customers
added, scaled and secured their applications with demand for security
and from our service provider vertical, fueling sales in the quarter.
In fact, security concerns continue to drive the majority of our
customer engagement with demand showing up in both software and
hardware form factors and across multiple consumption models.
In one example from Q3, an existing BIG-IP hardware customer and one of
the world's largest banking and financial services organizations turned
to F5 when a large 4G incident revealed other vendor solutions were
insufficiently protecting against zero-day threats. As a strategic
partner, F5 demonstrated that our advanced web application firewall
provided immediate protection against current and future
vulnerabilities. Also during Q3, a large global retailer turned to F5
after experiencing challenges with their existing bot defense provider
over a head-to-head three-month proof of concept against their current
solution.
Our distributed cloud bought and risk solution demonstrated
significantly higher efficacy, and the customer is now deploying F5 to
protect their apps and their customers. We have said previously that
our customers are increasingly operating both traditional and modern
architectures and looking to F5 to unite their strategies and simplify
their operations. In the latest example of this trend, during Q3, an
American multinational financial services corporation selected a
combination of BIG-IP and NGINX to secure and process their high volume
of critical encrypted transactions globally.
Last quarter, I also spotlighted our new SaaS offering, F5 distributed
cloud services, which we launched in February. With this platform, we
are delivering security, multi-cloud networking and edge-based
computing solutions on a unified Software-as-a-Service platform. While
it is still very interest, we're seeing good traction and customer
interest. During Q3, a global company specializing in clinical services
and customizable medical devices selected our web application firewall
and API protection solution to ensure rapid deployment of their
security policy at scale and to provide global delivery of services in
a hybrid multi-region support model or via SaaS.
Finally, service providers drove demand in the quarter as customers
scale and secure 4G cores and begin to move 5G cores into production.
In one win in the quarter, we expanded our carrier-grade firewall
business with a North American service provider as they continue to
grow both their 4G and 5G traffic.
In another service provider win, we expanded our offerings with an
APAC-based customer to include BIG-IP cloud-native network functions
for its 5G mobile core. These recently introduced cloud-native
functions are perfect for moving workloads from legacy NFV to a modern
cloud-native architecture. Cloud-native functions enable service
providers and large enterprises to realize the full benefit of the
cloud, automating and simplifying their operations with a more secure,
more scalable network.
Before I turn the call to Frank to review our Q3 results and our Q4
outlook, I will comment on the macro environment. As I said previously,
we saw strong demand in Q3 and we've got a strong Q4 pipeline. At the
same time, we also observed more backend linearity in Q3, and our sales
teams have noted instances where more approvals were required to close
deals. While we are not seeing it today, we believe the combination of
macro uncertainty and inflation will put pressure on customer budgets
and eventually force customers to reprioritize investments.
We will continue to closely monitor signals from our customers. And
like others, we are assessing adjustments we would make in the event
that the environment or our customers turn more cautious. We have built
a stronger and more resilient by expanding our solutions portfolio and
our consumption models. As a result of our business transformation, F5
is positioned to benefit both from software growth drivers, including
BIG-IP, NGINX, and our F5 distributed cloud services SaaS offerings,
and what we expect will be persistent demand for systems. As a result
of our successful transformation efforts to date, we have a stronger
business model that increases our confidence sustained revenue and
earnings growth.
Now I will turn the call to Frank. Frank?
Frank Pelzer
Thank you, Francois, and good afternoon, everyone. I will review our Q3
results before discussing our Q4 outlook. We delivered third quarter
revenue of $674 million, reflecting a 4% growth year-over-year with 5%
product growth. Product revenue represented 48% of total revenue in the
quarter, and software represented 55% of product revenue. This is the
second quarter in a row where the majority of our product revenue has
come from software.
Q3 software revenue grew 38% to $179 million. Systems revenue of $148
million declined 18% year-over-year due to ongoing supply chain
challenges and resulting shipment delays. Similar to Q2, we added
systems backlog of tens of millions of dollars in Q3. Rounding out our
revenue picture, global services delivered $348 million in Q3 revenue,
up 2% from the prior year.
Taking a closer look at our software revenue, subscription-based
revenue contributed 82% of total software revenue in the quarter, a new
high. Term-based subscriptions continue to represent over half of our
subscription revenue with smaller but growing contributions from
Software-as-a-Service and utility consumption models. Revenue from
recurring sources, which includes term subscriptions,
Software-as-a-Service and utility-based revenue as well as the
maintenance portion of our services revenue totaled 72% of revenue in
the quarter. This is another milestone for us and is up from 66% in the
year ago period.
On a regional basis, Americas delivered 5% revenue growth
year-over-year, representing 57% of total revenue. EMEA declined 7%,
representing 23% of revenue, and APAC grew 15%, representing 19% of
revenue. I'll remind you that given current supply chain constraints,
our geographic revenue distribution in a quarter is not fully
indicative of demand for each given region. Enterprise customers
represented 70% of product bookings in the quarter. Service providers
represented 18% and government customers represented 12%, including 3%
from U.S. Federal.
I will now share our Q3 operating results. GAAP gross margin was 80.6%.
Non-GAAP gross margin was above our guide at 83.2%. While we continue
to experience increased component prices, expedite fees and other
sourcing-related costs, our Q3 gross margin reflects some improvement
in average selling price on systems in the quarter. We are not ready to
say it's a trend, but we are encouraged about the overall direction.
GAAP operating expenses were $436 million. Non-GAAP operating expenses
were $367 million. This is lower than our guided range as a result of
some investments we delayed in anticipation of potential macro
headwinds that did not materialize in the quarter and lower
international expenses related to the strengthening dollar.
Our GAAP operating margin was 15.9%. Our non-GAAP operating margin was
28.8%. Our GAAP effective tax rate for the quarter was 18%. Our
non-GAAP effective tax rate was 17.4%, largely driven by a nonrecurring
benefit associated with the filing of our federal income tax return
during the quarter. GAAP net income for the quarter was $83 million or
$1.37 per share. Our better-than-guided gross and operating margin
performance and lower tax rate contributed to non-GAAP net income of
$155 million or $2.57 per share.
I will now turn to cash flow and the balance sheet. We generated $71
million in cash flow from operations in Q3. This is net of more than
$30 million of payments to partners related to securing component
inventory to support future hardware builds and component expedite
fees. Capital expenditures for the quarter were $9 million. DSO for the
quarter was 61 days. Similar to last quarter, this is up from
historical levels due to back-ended shipping linearity in the quarter
resulting from ongoing supply chain challenges.
Cash and investments totaled approximately $757 million at quarter end.
During the quarter, we repurchased approximately $250 million worth of
F5 shares or approximately 1.5 million shares at an average price of
$171 per share. Deferred revenue increased 14% year-over-year to $1.64
billion, up from $1.60 billion in Q2, largely driven by subscriptions
and SaaS bookings growth and, to a lesser extent, deferred service
maintenance. Finally, we ended the quarter with approximately 6,900
employees.
I will now share our outlook for the fourth quarter. Unless otherwise
stated, please note that my guidance comments reference non-GAAP
metrics. We expect Q4 revenue in the range of $680 million to $700
million. Our pipeline indicates Q4 demand that would put our software
revenue growth towards the high end of our 35% to 40% target for the
year. As Francois discussed, however, we are very cognizant of the
broader, more cautious environment. And as a result, we see more risk
at the top end of our software growth range than there was a quarter
ago.
Given the Q3 strength in global services, we now expect global services
revenue to grow approximately 1.5% to 2% for the year. We expect Q4
gross margins in a range of 82% to 83%. We are seeing component costs
continue to rise and expect that they will be higher still next year.
As a result, we implemented an approximately 15% price increase in
systems effective July 1.
Given our backlog, we expect it will take some quarters for the price
increase to manifest into sustainable gross margin improvements. We
estimate Q4 operating expenses of $374 million to $386 million, which
would put our FY '22 operating margin at approximately 29%, an
improvement of 100 to 200 basis points from our prior outlook.
Factoring in the tax rate benefit from Q3, we now expect FY '22
effective tax rate will be approximately 19%. Our Q4 earnings target is
$2.45 to $2.57 per share. We expect Q4 share-based compensation $61
million to $63 million.
Finally, as we announced in the earnings press release, our Board
authorized an additional $1 billion for our share repurchase program.
This new authorization is incremental to the $272 million remaining in
the existing program. As we have over the last two years, we expect to
continue to balance share repurchases with other strategic uses of
cash. This concludes our prepared remarks today.
Operator, would you please open the call to Q&A?
Question-and-Answer Session
Operator
Thank you, sir. Ladies and gentlemen, we will now begin the
question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions]. Your first
question comes from Sami Badri of Credit Suisse. Please go ahead.
Sami Badri
First thing, I wanted to just clarify was, I think there was a
reference to the backlog increasing or at least adding more revenues to
the backlog. Could you clarify if the backlog exiting fiscal 3Q is
actually higher than where it was exiting fiscal 2Q '22? So that's my
first question. The second question is there's a lot of interest in the
investor base around the software growth trajectory of the business.
And I know you guys discussed coming in at the higher end of the range
at fiscal year '22, but could you characterize or give us indication on
what fiscal year '23 is going to look like, just because the growth
rates are rather significant?
Frank Pelzer
Sami, I'll take the first question, and then I'll let Francois speak to
second question. So yes, the backlog was higher and significantly
higher in Q3 than it was in exiting Q2. We did not quantify that. We
talked about that we would do that at the end of the fiscal year. So,
we'll actually release the number as part of the October call and
you'll see it in the K.
Francois Locoh-Donou
And Sami, I'll take the second part of your question. So, obviously,
this is not a time where we are guiding for fiscal 2023. Overall, if
you look at our -- the performance of the business in software, we
guided 35% to 40% of our investor meeting about almost two years ago
now in November of 2020. And we have delivered that in the first year
in 2021, and this year we are delivering closer to the top end of the
range of that guidance.
So we feel very, very good about the drivers of software growth in the
business that we talked about, including modern applications, the
strength we are seeing in security and the adoption of multi-year
agreements with F5 driven by digital transformations and automation.
And so we will talk more about software growth for 2023 in October.
But when you look at 2023, frankly, the factors, I think some of the
factors that will affect that, one, of course, like every other company
is the macro environment and will that have an effect on our growth
rate. Today, frankly, it's too early to say, because we haven't seen a
fundamental change in the buying behaviors of our customers across the
globe based on the macro at this point.
And I think the other factors will be, we, through the pandemic Sami,
and this is specific I would say to the BIG-IP part of our business. We
have seen continued demand for hardware and we have seen a number of
customers that had declared that they would move to software pretty
quickly that have actually recommitted to hardware and stayed with
hardware longer.
So, we are seeing very, very strong resilience and strong demand in
hardware, sometimes at the expense of customers that would've moved to
software. So if that, kind of mix shift, if you will continue in 2023
that may affect our software growth rate some, but it wouldn't affect
the top-line because it would be more of a mix shift factor, if we
continue to see that shift in customer behavior.
Sami Badri
Got it. Thank you for that color. And I just wanted to just follow up
on specifically service providers because that came up a couple of
times on this call. Could you just give us some more specifics to what
exactly the inflection is at this point for why service provider
customers are relying more heavily to see -- what specifically are they
seeing in the F5 portfolio that's most helpful or the right solution
for them? Could you give us specifics on -- a little bit more detail on
what's going on, maybe even a type of service provider?
Francois Locoh-Donou
I think, Sami, there are two dynamics that -- our service provider
business is doing very well, and it's the result of kind of two series
of investments that are intercepting, I think the market at the right
time. On the software side, we have invested heavily in cloud-native
functions that allow service providers who want to build 5G cores to
evolve to these more cloud made environments and be able to do that
with us.
And we have now a number of design wins in this area that are starting
to go into production. And this quarter, we had more of these going
into production, and so it's turning into revenue. And our expectation
is that, that will continue. But we feel well positioned for the cycle
of kind of next-generation software deployments with service providers
both in the core infrastructure and at the edge.
The other dynamic that's going on with service providers is that they
continue to increase capacity in their 4G environment for increasing
traffic, specifically 5G traffic, and we -- I think, as we shared
before, we have continued to make investments in our hardware platforms
to prepare for this increased demand for capacity. And as a result,
we've been able to get to some price performance points that are really
meeting the demands of high-scale, high-capacity service provider
deployments, especially in the GI land part of the network for things
like carrier-grade firewalls. And that's driving strong demand and
execution in the service provider vertical.
Operator
Your next question comes from James Fish of Piper Sandler. Please go
ahead.
James Fish
Wanted to go off the software question from before. Is there a way to
think about how much the unattached software deal flow is either
independent or dependent on some of the systems deal flow given you're
already selling into some of the largest organizations out there? And
also, you mentioned there, Francois, multiyear agreements just now. Is
duration actually extending for software?
Francois Locoh-Donou
I'll start with the latter part of that question, Jim. So no, I think
the trends are pretty steady, Jim, on the multiyear agreement.
Typically, there are three-year agreements, and we haven't seen a
fundamental change in duration.
In terms of the first part of your question, if you take our software
business, Jim, obviously, the part of the business that's driven by
kind of net new modern applications largely circle with NGINX is not
attached to any dynamics around hardware, and our managed services and
SaaS business distributed cloud services is not attached to any
dynamics on the hardware business.
With BIG-IP, what you're seeing is the majority of the -- I would say
the majority of the software business have a -- is not attached to the
dynamics in hardware. However, there are customers who are -- we still
have a number of customers who are migrating from a sort of
hardware-first environment to a software-first environment.
And where we have seen changes, I would say, not specifically this
quarter but over the last 18 months, is we have seen a number of
customers who have declared that they would go to a software-first
environment sooner. And we have seen a number of them constantly delay
that and stay with a more hardware-first environment.
And I'd say that's where you have an effect in -- specifically in that
area of the BIG-IP business, where you're seeing very strong resilience
on the hardware and -- but it's affected a little bit our software
growth rates.
James Fish
All right. And then maybe for Frank. I do want to unpack your guide a
bit here, essentially the back of The Street for Q4. Is there a way to
understand for how much during the year will be a net issue from the
supply chain constraints versus that prior, I believe, $60 million to
$90 million headwind versus the macro impact you're now including in
guidance?
Frank Pelzer
Jim, I think you'll probably be able to see that more specifically in
Q4 when we talk about the backlog number. We've -- as a policy, if the
backlog number is more than 10% of product revenue, then we will
release the actual number, and that's fully our expectation right now.
And so I think you'll be able to effectively pull out what was the
difference in that change and make some assumptions on what that would
have meant for the software revenue or the total revenue overall. So,
if you can hold off for three months, I think you'll get your answer.
Operator
Your next question comes from Meta Marshall of Morgan Stanley. Please
go ahead.
Meta Marshall
This is Meta. A couple of questions. Just on the supply chain piece,
when you're expecting bone by kind of the second quarter of next year,
does that mean that the redesign process is kind of complete at that
point or that there is component availability you expect to take place
at that point? And then maybe as a second follow-on question, just how
is the rSeries transition from iSeries for breton versus expectations?
Francois Locoh-Donou
Meta, so when we're talking about improvements in our shipments in the
second fiscal quarter of 2023, Meta, that's driven by two factors. The
first is what we expect to be better component availability from our
suppliers based on commitments they've made to us. And generally, from
what we see, they are on track with execution against these commitments
on some of the most constrained components. So that's factor number
one.
Factor number two is we have also been doing some design work to design
around or redesign around some of the most constrained components, And
those design efforts should complete towards the tail end of the
calendar year, which would allow us to ship with the new components in
the second quarter -- or the second fiscal quarter of '23. So those are
the two factors driving that, Meta.
As of today, both of those factors are really on track. Now we're
talking about things that are happening in the next six to nine months
and then looking at the full second half of 2023. So, we -- I'll caveat
that by saying, there's still a ton of execution to come and
commitments to be delivered by our suppliers. But generally, we're on
track. And I would say, we feel incrementally better about that than we
did three months ago from what we've seen from our suppliers'
commitments and our own load.
As it relates to rSeries, we are very happy with the ramp of rSeries.
It actually is right now the fastest-renting new platform than we've
had. The rent is happening 2x faster than prior new platform
introductions. And that's largely due to the benefits of the rSeries
platform. So it's an investment we started a few years ago really to
bring to our customers several of the elements of the cloud to their
on-premises environment. So they're getting a lot of automation
benefits from rSeries, the ability to run multiple software tenants on
the same platforms.
And so for those customers that really want to automate their
environments, which is at the heart of a lot of the digital
transformation, what they're getting from rSeries is not just the
price-performance benefits that you get from a new hardware platform,
but also a lot of the cloud-like benefits of automation and
multi-tenancy into the platform. So that's a good ramp, and we are -- I
think we're pretty excited about what rSeries is going to do for the
business, not just this year, but for the next few years.
Operator
Your next question comes from Tim Long of Barclays. Please go ahead.
Tim Long
Just a few on the software business. First, any update on getting more
consistent metrics here, RPO, ARR and the dollar retention? Love to get
an update on when we could potentially see those numbers more
specifically and then maybe related to it, we're not going to get them
now. Frank, could you a little -- talk a little bit about kind of what
you're seeing is a nice jump in software? New deals, first
true-forwards, how do we look at that aspect of the software growth
this quarter? And then maybe the last one is maybe for you, Francois.
We're coming up on three years of -- three-year anniversary of some of
the really large first-term deals. Could you talk to us a little bit
about how you think those renegotiations or renewals would be working
and how that can work into the model? Maybe just a little color on the
first set of deals, It should be a pivotal time to renew those deals, I
would think. And if so, are those deals like some of the other business
where it's kind of been running above run rates, so those renewals
could potentially be larger than the initial contracts? Thank you.
Frank Pelzer
Sure, Tim. Thanks so much for the question. I'll start and then I'll
turn it over to Francois. So in terms of the split out on the software
metrics, as we talked about ongoing, we're just starting to hit the
second term of where a lot of this business started to take off. And so
we are still tracking those metrics internally. We're not ready to
release them externally. Again, as I've said in the past, we want to
make sure that they are used in the right way and they can be
predictive for the future outlook of the business. And as we get more
and more of these data points over the next coming quarters, we do
expect it's going to be more of a when, not if, we do release these
metrics, and so more to come on that in FY '23. I know you had another
question for Francois, specifically on some of the renewals.
Francois Locoh-Donou
Yes. Generally, Tim, on the renewals, the early indicators on the
revenue expansion opportunity are really good on these -- on those
large multiyear agreements. What we're seeing is continued growth in
application usage, and that's a part of what's driving the expansion in
some of these opportunities. So, it's early days, as you said, but it's
going very well.
I would say the other driver -- I would say, both of renewals and new
multiyear agreements is security. We had a very strong quarter, again,
in security. And what we're seeing is that the portfolio that we've put
together that allows our customers to put security capabilities across
their environment is really making a difference.
So this quarter, we had a very strong quarter on security with BIG-IP
and WAF. And in fact, WAF across all of our form factors and BIG-IP,
and we had a very strong quarter with NGINX security. This was the
second quarter in a row where we had over 100 wins of NGINX with
security. We have very strong debut, if you will, for our distributor
cloud services WAP offering, which is our SaaS offering on security.
And we're bringing all of these security offering over time under a
single SaaS console that will allow our customers to push the same
policy to all of their environments for protecting their applications.
So that, if you will, competitive differentiation, we're seeing the
benefit of that both in terms of expansion of existing agreements as
well as new agreements that are driven by our security software.
Tim Long
Okay. And Frank, if I could, just to follow up on the metrics. In the
past, you've talked a little bit about the software growth in the
subscription business is being driven by true-forwards and/or new deals
in the pipeline. So could you just give us a little color of kind of
mix of growth between true-forward contribution and kind of new deal
contribution?
Frank Pelzer
Yes. So we're not going to split that out in the quarter. I think both
of them were quite healthy. When I take a look at where we have been in
the past, the true-forward contribution was along our expectations for
the growth in new business. That was also in line with our
expectations, and it resulted in the 38% software growth, but I'm not
going to give a specific split between the two for the call.
Operator
Your next question comes from Alex Henderson of Needham. Please go
ahead.
Alex Henderson
So across the presentation, you've made a number of references to
buying behavior, specifically said at one point that buying behavior
patterns haven't changed. Another point, you said that there's some
increase in the number of signatures required. And you've weighed into
your guide the expectation of continued softness in the broader
economy. But can you talk a little bit about where you are in terms of
the pipeline of activity that you're chasing, whether the activity is
more robust, less robust than you would expect for this time of year?
And particularly whether the deal sizes are bigger, smaller, how the
price increase might impact that longevity; and within the backlog,
whether there's any concern around cancellations of orders?
Francois Locoh-Donou
Alex, let me start with the last part of your question. So no, with the
backlog, we have absolutely no concerns about cancellations of orders.
And that's because we haven't seen any. There hasn't been any trend
into cancellation. And also, our lead times, whilst elongated, are
still at about four months. And relative to some of the other hardware
networking players, our lead times are still less than a number of
others.
And in fact, we have seen some of our orders delayed because customers
were willing to get their -- some networking gear that had 12 months of
lead time before ordering from F5 that only has two to six months of
lead times, depending on which platform you pick. So we're not worried
about cancellations at all.
Let me talk to the other dynamics. You mentioned sort of customer
buying behavior, the implications of price increases. So if I take a
picture right now, Alex, of where we're at, no, we haven't seen on a
global level, I would say, with the exception of Europe specifically,
I'll come back to that in a moment, we have not seen a fundamental
change in and buying behavior.
We have seen a little back-ended linearity this quarter. And yes, some
deals that had a little more quickly in terms of the number of
approvals. But when we looked at the overall demand signals in the
quarter, they were very strong. And we didn't see a fundamental change
in close rates, if you will, from our pipeline. That is, I would say,
across the globe is true.
In Europe specifically, we did see some continued softness and very
back-ended linearity. And we think the macro is definitely affecting
buying behavior in Europe already today. Now when you look forward
around what we think we will see in coming months, let's start with our
pipeline is strong for Q4, and it is about what we would expect to have
as of today for our Q4 pipeline. We have a number of large deals,
specifically in software. Q4 is always a quarter with some of the
largest deals. And we have that pipeline of large deals to deliver
against our guidance.
That being said, what we are cautious about is, of course, we see the
dynamics in the macro environment. And I think the combination of
inflation in the U.S. and elsewhere and also outside the U.S., foreign
exchange, which ends up making our deal more expensive to customers in
Europe, Latin America and Asia, those increases in cost to customers
will force them to make prioritization calls on their investment. And
we think that, that may result in some deals being pushed out or a
different prioritization of projects than what we are currently
expecting.
We haven't seen any sign of that to-date. But our view is that given
that every other networking vendor out there has made increases in
prices, including us, customers at some point, their budgets are not
going up exponentially, and they'll have to make these prioritization
calls. I think that's the macro effect that we think we are likely to
see in the next few months.
Operator
Your next question comes from Samik Chatterjee of JPMorgan. Please go
ahead.
Samik Chatterjee
Francois, I just wanted to start with -- you've talked about the
privatization of spending from your customers or the cautious
environment you're in, but it also sounds like you're already starting
to prepare internally for that to some extent. I mean more curious
about hearing how you're thinking about the levels you can pull or the
changes or reprioritization in terms of F5 internally. Would you sort
of increase more sales incentives on the software business or focus
more on security? Like what are the levels you're thinking you can sort
of drive towards as you -- if you do see the customer behavior changing
because of the macro? And then just a quick follow-up, I mean since the
15% price increase on systems, what have been the order trends that
you've seen?
Francois Locoh-Donou
Samik, just the last part of your question about the 15% price
increase, what was your question about that?
Samik Chatterjee
Any color on the order trends since -- in stating the price increase --
pushing through the price increase?
Francois Locoh-Donou
Okay. So let me just start with that part of the question. So Samik,
yes, we did have a price increase that took effect on July 1. And we --
as a result of that, we had a number of orders that were pulled into
our third quarter by customers wanting to order early to not be
affected by that price increase.
When we look at the demand signals for Q3, we normalize out these
orders that were pulled in. And even if you normalize out for these
orders, it was actually a strong -- I would say, strong to very strong
demand quarter. In terms of the order trends post the price increase,
we are early in the quarter, and the linearity that we're seeing today
is not really different than what we would see in the first month of
the quarter.
To the first part of your question around how we're preparing for what
may transpire in the macro, we -- you will see that we are being
cautious. So, we're not -- I want to be clear, we're not seeing any
change in our demand signals to date. But given everything else that's
going on in the macro, we have, out of caution, significantly slowed
down hiring in the last month across functions. There were some kind of
investment initiatives that we have delayed to see more clearly what's
going to transpire in the macro and see if we push forward with these
investments or not.
So right now, Samik, it's more on the management of our OpEx and OpEx
run rate that we have focused our -- if you will, our preparation and
readiness. Our incentives for software for our teams are pretty strong,
and they're going to continue to remain strong. And hopefully, you've
seen that in the results we're having on our software growth rates.
Operator
Your next question comes from Rod Hall of Goldman Sachs. Please go
ahead.
Rod Hall
I wanted to come back to the comment, I think, Francois, you made it
about the back-end loaded nature of the quarter and kind of the DSOs. I
guess I was curious about the drivers of the back-end loading. I mean
you guys are saying you're not seeing demand impacts, but I wonder what
-- how would you characterize the drivers for the back-end-loaded
nature of the quarter? Was there a particular type of product you were
selling more in the back end of the quarter? Was there a promotion,
something like that? And I'm curious also on the DSOs whether you think
next quarter those might come back down again.
Frank Pelzer
So yes, Rod, let me start with the DSO side of the question and then
let Francois talk about some of the back-end linearity of it. So the
DSO, a lot of that, but I think it's going to be a little more linked
to not bookings but just frankly when things can be shipped and is the
components that came in, in the back half but then had the shipments go
out. The bills can go out associated with that, and that drove the
increase in the AR balance, which is the calculation for your DSO.
So, it's likely going to see a return to normalcy when we get into the
back half of FY '23, and that's when we're going to see DSOs come back
down. I will note that the quality of those receivables that you
haven't seen any aging increase, it just happens, to come after the end
of the quarter. So, I will expect that DSOs, as Francois mentioned, in
the shipping side in the back half of FY '23 to see when that's going
to start coming down and that AR balance coming down.
Francois Locoh-Donou
Yes. And Rod, on the back-end-loaded quarter, first of all, yes, it was
more back ended but on a very, very strong demand quarter. And so I
think I mentioned earlier that we saw at the very end of the quarter
some order being -- some orders that we felt should have come in Q4
that came in Q3. We attributed some of that to customers are doing
ahead of a price increase. I think if you normalize that out that would
normalize a little more the linearity of the quarter.
The other factor is Europe, which was, in fact, back-end loaded in
linearity. We think that to do with the macro and the scrutiny there.
And if you normalize out these two factors, there was probably also an
element that we started to see around more customers, I want to say
outside of Europe that had more approval cycles in their orders. And
so, it may have pushed some orders that we may have expected in the
second month but happened in the third month of the quarter.
Rod Hall
Okay. And Francois, could I just follow up on one thing there? The --
so you're saying most of the types of orders you would have seen were
systems kind of ahead of the pricing increases. Is that the right way
to characterize the kind of the type of where you saw on the back end
or...
Francois Locoh-Donou
Yes. That phenomenon around the sort of orders very late in the quarter
to avoid the price increase would have been more about systems than for
software, where I think we had a more kind of normal linearity.
Operator
Your next question comes from Amit Daryanani of Evercore. Please go
ahead.
Amit Daryanani
I have two as well. I guess maybe to start with on the software side,
right, even see at the higher end of the 35% to 40% growth rate this
year, is there anything you would call out that's more onetime in
nature that you think helped you on software growth in fiscal '22, ELAs
or big deals or something? And if you do end up in a slower macro
environment in '23, does that help or have your software business over
time?
Frank Pelzer
Amit, let me start with that, and I'll let Francois take the back half
of your question. So, there's nothing that is abnormal to what our
expectations were. I will note that we did have large deal activities
that happened three years ago that repeated themselves -- that repeated
itself this year. And that's going to be part of the normal process and
reasons why we have potentially quarter-to-quarter volatility even on
larger numbers.
As these numbers increase in the denominator, that fluctuation will
again be muted and decrease. But we've talked about some large deal
activity in FY '19 that repeated itself this year, and it's always been
part of our expectations, even going back to aim in November of 2020
when we thought about what a Horizon 2 outlook would be.
Francois Locoh-Donou
Yes. And then the second part of your question, Amit, about -- so the
question is whether if we are in a recession in 2023, does that help or
hurt our software business, well, I will just give you some thoughts on
how I think about this. On the one hand, I think one thing we've seen
in past recessions is people hunker down and not start new things but
continue to do the things that they've been doing.
And so what that would mean is for our customers that are on hardware,
it's likely that some of these customers would decide to just continue
to stay in the hardware train rather than start a whole new
architecture, a new project if they haven't done that already. And if
you look at it that way, that would favor our hardware business and
less our software business for where there's this BIG-IP opportunity
between hardware and systems.
On the other hand, the vast majority of our software business is
subscriptions, and we think there are a number of customers that would
prefer to move to this OpEx model in that environment rather than new
large CapEx outlays. And that would favor more of our software
business. But if you step back from it, I think the way we look at it
is we have now built a business model that we think is actually quite
resilient because we can meet our customers where they are at with
hardware form factors, software form factors, a term subscription or
perpetual and even SaaS and managed services form factors.
And so if we have customers that want to add security capabilities to
their environment but they want to start with a lower expense on a
pay-as-you-go model, our SaaS offerings are going to get traction very
rapidly. They already are, and that would favor that in 2023. So
overall, we feel that we've got the resilience in the model to be able
to meet customers in the economic model that makes most sense for them
in a recessionary environment.
Amit Daryanani
Perfect. And then if I could just follow up on the system side. You
made some comments on fiscal Q1 in '23 will be the low point of systems
revenue. Was that an absolute revenue statement or a signal that you're
already declining peak over there? And then really if I look at all the
stuff you have on the system side from the backlog with the price
increases and we have the pent-up demand, is there a reason why you
don't see your hardware business show positive growth next year?
Frank Pelzer
So yes, let me start with that and let Francois. So, we were giving an
absolute in terms of revenue dollar value for when Q1 would be the low
point in our systems revenue. And that is truly a result of the
components that are needed to ship when we see those schedules comings
in. As Francois mentioned, the volatility associated with decommits has
gone down from what we have experienced in recent quarters. That having
been said, the commitments that we have, will show that, that will be
the low point of what we can actually produce to that volume. And so
that's why on a dollar basis, we expect Q1 to be the low point.
Francois Locoh-Donou
And to your second part -- the second part of your question, Amit,
whether we would expect hardware to show positive growth next year, our
expectation would be yes, that our hardware would show positive growth
next year if, of course, we are able to have the recovery profile in
our supply availability that we have talked about. So, we are on track
with that profile for now.
And if that's confirmed, I would expect our hardware revenues to be
greater next year than they are this year because we're not --
certainly our backlog, frankly, is so large today that even if in a
recessionary environment the hardware demand was to be less than it is
this year. And to be clear, this year, the hardware demand is much
higher than the revenue we're printing. Even if the demand was to be
less, we would be able to ship more revenues than we have this year.
At this stage, I'm not going to speak to demand on our hardware
business for next year because there are too many unknowns, and we know
we're going into a macro environment. But specifically speaking to what
hardware revenue could be, I would say, yes, assuming that supply is
there.
Frank Pelzer
And Amit, I will just -- I will reconfirm what Francois said last
quarter. Q1 will be a low point. We will see a build in Q2 from there
as some of the redesigns and components become more available. We
expect Q3 to be higher yet still because of -- we're able to ramp
production even more on the new platforms. And then ultimately, by Q4,
we may actually start to begin to bring down backlog because of
availability. But we do expect it to take a linear up curve on the
revenue for systems, next year.
Operator
Your next question comes from Jim Suva of Citigroup. Please go ahead.
Jim Suva
And I just have one question. Francois, in your prepared comments, you
mentioned additional signatures and a little bit more time to get deals
to be completely approved. I'm wondering, does this also allow the CTOs
more time or more contemplation to do virtual instances, more software,
VM type of production orders from you? Or is it kind of the cadence of
what they're looking at kind of as you expect? I'm just kind of
wondering what the elongated closing time, does it actually allow them
to kind of take a step back and look at the whiteboard a little bit
more about the solutions that they're buying from you?
Francois Locoh-Donou
Thank you, Jim. So we're having, Jim, I think the expanded nature of
our portfolio today, where we are able to engage our customers with a
SaaS offering, a software offering or a hardware offering where they
want to look at that or a combination of all of the above for their
capabilities for addressing multiple applications in different
environments, that's creating great strategic kind of architectural
conversations with our customers, but they are happening early on in
the cycle.
So by the time we get into a project that's been defined and scoped by
teams and getting into an approval cycle, I don't think it's a question
of a CTO stepping back and saying, "Let me reconsider all of that." I
think it's more of a -- in the first few quarters in the pandemic,
there was such a rush to add capacity that I think people were just
approving orders as soon as they were coming into the queue.
And now and -- especially perhaps with people knowing maybe there's a
recession around the corners, they're making sure that the right levels
of approvals exist in an organization and they take their time. And
when they make a decision, it's a full go. So I think it's more of that
effect, Jim, than a step back around architecture, which does happen,
but it's happening upfront, early on with our -- the customers'
technology teams and our own technical teams.
Operator
Ladies and gentlemen, due to time constraints, we will take our last
question from Simon Leopold of Raymond James. Please go ahead.
Simon Leopold
I wanted to get a quick clarification and then a broader question. On
the clarification front, Francois, you indicated growth towards the
high end for the software business for the year. And I think that might
imply a sequential decline from the systems business in the September
quarter. And I want to verify that if it is down sequentially, I just
want to get a better understanding of why because it sounds like supply
chain constraints are somewhat better or the same. So not sure on that
point.
And the broader question, I wanted to see if you could talk a little
bit more about unpacking your enterprise verticals. In the past, you
used to disclose more detail about the composition of your enterprise
customers. And in light of the concerns about a potential recession, I
think it would help to get a better understanding of the profile of
these enterprise customers in some sense that you have very little to
no exposure to the SMB market within that enterprise vertical and where
your vulnerabilities might be. Thank you.
Frank Pelzer
Let me start and I'll let Francois pick up on the back half of your
question. So as you know, we -- as a policy, don't really guide to
specific mixes within the components of our product revenue. I did say
last quarter that we expect either Q4 or Q1 to be the low point of our
systems revenue purely due to supplier commitments and what we could
actually ship.
And so, I'm not going to address are we going to be down sequentially
quarter-over-quarter in terms of dollar revenue. But that
directionally, I was saying last quarter and still feel that Q4 and Q1
were the low points. We're saying now specifically Q1 may be lower than
Q4. I wasn't saying specifically what Q3 -- what Q4 is going to be in
relation to Q3.
The supply -- so on the supply chain dynamics, you are correct. We are
seeing a bit of a stabilization on most of the components. But we do
have what we call the Golden Screw component to building boxes, meaning
that you have to have everything obviously to do it. And there are
still a few components associated with our builds that are constrained
and continue to be constrained.
And so if for whatever reason, those are freed up, which is not our
expectation, we could do better than these, but that's not the
expectation that we want to set for you. There's still -- know broadly,
the supply chain is getting better for most components. There are still
a few in our specific builds that are constrained. We talked about
fiscal Q2 being better, not because those suppliers are able to ship us
more but more because of the redesign efforts that will likely go into
effect in the back half of our fiscal Q1. That will help us with the
improvements in build in Q2.
Francois Locoh-Donou
And to the second part of your question, we have no -- virtually no
exposure to the SMB segment. So our exposure is really large
enterprises. And of course, service providers and government, but those
are the three verticals we serve. And in the enterprise base, it's
really the large enterprises around the world.
Operator
Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes your conference call for this
afternoon. We would like to thank you all for participating and ask
that you please disconnect your lines.
