Palo Alto Networks (TICKER: PANW) Palo Alto Networks Inc Panw Ceo Nikesh Arora Presents Barclays Global Technology Media And
Palo Alto Networks, Inc. (NASDAQ:PANW) Barclays Global Technology,
Media and Telecommunications Conference Call December 7, 2022 3:45 PM
ET
Company Participants
Nikesh Arora - Chairman and CEO
Conference Call Participants
Saket Kalia - Barclays
Saket Kalia
Excellent. Well, hey, good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to Day 1 of
the Barclays TMT Conference. It's an honor to have with us the team
from Palo Alto. Of course, we've got Nikesh Arora, Chief Executive
Officer. We also have Walter Pritchard, Head of IR, around here
somewhere.
So, we've got about 30 minutes together. Maybe I'll take the first 20
or 25 minutes and do some fireside chat here with the Nikesh, which I
know is going to be fun. And then, maybe in the last five or ten
minutes, let's make this interactive. So, if anyone has a question, I
think we've got some mic runners around here. Just pop up your hand,
and we'll make sure we get your question in.
So, with all of that as a framework, Nikesh, thanks so much for being
with us here today.
Nikesh Arora
Thank you for having me.
Question-and-Answer Session
Q - Saket Kalia
No, absolutely. Maybe just to start off, make sure we're all on the
same page, a lot to recap from last quarter. But maybe to level set for
all of us, what were some of the things that you were particularly
proud of in Q1 to help maybe frame the discussion?
Nikesh Arora
Well, Saket, as you can see, we've had a flurry of reporting in the
security industry. I think the key highlights of Q1 was there have been
reports from many of the security companies dipping on the margin,
slightly off from what you might have expected. But across the board,
as an industry sector, it still is more resilient than most subsectors
of technology. That was kind of obvious in Q1.
Business is not going away, at least that's not what anyone is telling
you, that's not what we're seeing. You're seeing as per people ramp
deals or business deals elongating, which is something you contend
with. All that means is things are getting more scrutiny, because Jay
Powell is being hammered. Everybody is worried that he's going to be
successful, in which case, there will be some slowdown of economic
growth and everybody is kind of preparing for it, be it us or our
customers. And you're seeing the impact of that in everybody's
narrative. I don't think we're seeing as much of it just yet, but
everybody is apprehensive, and hence, expecting that's going to happen.
Now, from our perspective, I was excited that our teams are still able
to nail the number. They're still able to go out and get it. We saw it
a bit earlier in the quarter and we decided to accelerate our
go-to-market efforts and get people out in the field and on the payment
much faster. We went ahead and accelerated hiring on key sales roles,
because we expect that we need more feet on the street, we need people
fully trained out there, because we think if this trend continues over
the next six to nine months, which means you can contend -- contended
with sort of more activity upfront.
So, generally, across the board, there are some increasing signs of
customer attention to budgets. We can hopefully execute our way through
it. As I have said before, there was a silver lining, the consolidation
conversations, we-can-save-you-money conversations by having lesser
vendors and lower total cost of ownership, those things are now
beginning to work in our favor.
Saket Kalia
Yes, absolutely. And certainly, what I would add to that last quarter,
and I'm sure we're going to talk about later on is while nailing the
number, we were still able to raise the margin guide for the year
despite everything else.
Nikesh Arora
Saket, there's a time and place for everything. You've been asking me
and people have been asking me what about your margins, and I always
maintain that you've got to balance growth and profitability. Growth
was our key focus because we were trying to build new product
categories. We're trying to make sure we establish our capability
across various categories. We feel comfortable that we have repeatable
go-to-market motions in our cloud security business, in our network
security business, and our cortex business. As we told you at the end
of Q4, we are converging our network security teams, trying to extract
more efficiency out of those teams. And we just put all that into play.
We're beginning to see the benefits. I think in long term, if you want
to grow north of 20% in our business, you should be able to sustain
north of 20% operating margins.
Saket Kalia
I think, that's fair. I think one of the benefits that Palo Alto
Networks has is the broadest portfolio in security. Maybe
notwithstanding some of the macro backdrop that we mentioned, the
question is, how is that broad portfolio helping in closing business?
And maybe where I'm going there is, you've talked about building this
muscle internally for selling the broad platform. Where do you think
the company is in that evolution of platform selling?
Nikesh Arora
So, the first two, three years at Palo Alto, I had to spend 70% of my
time with the product teams, making sure we have this extensible
platform. And it's kind of clear that there are approximately three
buying centers. There's a whole network security team, which is focused
on Zero Trust, which is dealing with the impact of the cloud, how do I
take my data center infrastructure, figure out a hybrid infrastructure
between the data center and the cloud, and now people working from
home. So, they're all busy being network transformation projects and we
have the ability to come in and say, "I can do Zero Trust for you."
And I use this explanation the other day when somebody asked me a
question if firewall is going to be dead. And I was particularly
delighted with the way we talked about this. So, if all of you who are
worried about firewalls and network security, what firewalls are, they
are a mechanism to inspect traffic, okay? That's what they do. They
look at traffic to see if there's malware, bad URLs, bad DNS, they're
just inspecting traffic, making sure traffic flows without security
flaws.
Traffic is exploding in a big way, whether it's traffic from the campus
to the data center, from the data center to the cloud. So, generally,
traffic is going up. That traffic must be inspected. You can inspect it
with the hardware firewall or software firewall or a SASE product. Now,
we're one of the very few people in the industry who actually have form
factors in all three categories that work together. So, our network
security people are working hard towards this platform notion of
providing that capability.
Cloud? Same thing. We have seven different modules we can go from code
to deploy to run, so we, again, have a platform in cloud security, and
that's the conversation that's beginning to happen and continues to
happen. And then, with our most recent launch of XSIAM, we're finally
putting our stamp in the idea that SOCs need to be reinvented, they
need to be automated, and we have very good early signs that this is
going to be an emerging big category.
Saket Kalia
Absolutely. A lot of fun stuff there that I want to dig into. But maybe
we can just dig into the three main parts of the portfolio, maybe
starting with Prisma Cloud.
Nikesh Arora
Sure.
Saket Kalia
I think Palo has been investing more in software supply chain security,
most recently with the proposed acquisition of Cider, and of course, it
started with Bridgecrew. I guess, with this now under the Prisma
umbrella, can you just talk about how you view the software supply
chain opportunity? And how Palo could maybe disrupt us with the
portfolio that you're assembling?
Nikesh Arora
I think it's important for everybody here to understand what the
challenge or the opportunity is, and I'm presuming most of you have not
done coding in today's environment where -- and if you have ever coded
in the past, in the past, when you coded, you wrote an application,
there are application testing software, whether it's Checkmarx or
Veracode, which are 15 years old, they checked your code, if they said
everything is cool, you ship it to production and you're off to the
races.
And you wrote this stuff in a -- I remember programming in COBOL and
FORTRAN. I'm sure there's a bunch of stuff that happened after that.
But today's cloud world is very different. On average, every enterprise
has about a 100 tools that they use, which are third-party tools, which
are grabbed from open source, they grab widgets and images, and it's
actually an assembly exercise. Software is assembled more today than
it's coded. That's why it's got a supply chain problem, because you're
assembling software together using a bunch of tools which could have a
bunch of security flaws. So, in cloud, the point of insertion of
malware, the point of insertion of security flaws is in the coding
process. If you don't fix the security in the coding process, you will
forever be playing whack-a-mole in deployment or production.
So, you got to get ahead of the problem. The way you get ahead of the
problem is you scan every piece of code. You scan every image. You look
at every tool that's being used from a third-party perspective, that's
where supply chain security comes in. We brought Bridgecrew that was
doing all the scanning. We brought Cider, which is going to do all the
CI/CD work and the supply chain stuff. So, we've got the left. Now,
what we can do is we can investigate the left and then track you
through the entire development process to see where the problem came
from, so you can go fix it. There's nobody else in the industry. We
think that generally, the industry is about two to two-and-a-half years
behind where we are in terms of our thinking, our product capability
and what we're working on.
Saket Kalia
Absolutely. I think you've talked about Prisma Cloud having more of a
multi-product opportunity, I think with nine modules. And clearly,
we've talked about software supply chain is one module. And of course,
I think the cloud workload protection is also a popular module. Maybe
the question for you, Nikesh, is what modules here do you think have
the most room for adoption as you think about Prisma Cloud becoming a
$1 billion business someday?
Nikesh Arora
Well, Prisma Cloud is going to be $1 billion business in the next 12 to
18 months, so not someday, that's pretty much in the near future. So --
and it depends what $1 billion business means. We'll do $1 billion in
bookings in the next 12 to 18 months in Prisma Cloud.
Saket Kalia
Got it.
Nikesh Arora
So, we've got a worry about the $5 billion problem, not $1 billion
problem, right?
Saket Kalia
Got it.
Nikesh Arora
I think about it differently, Saket. The way I think about it is, in
our lifetimes, if you look at evolution in the next five to eight
years, there'll be $1 trillion of public cloud being consumed every
year, if you believe that. Now, I'll give you a data point. Palo Alto
Network spends approximately $250 million a year in public cloud. And
if I had to pay for my own cloud securities to my own products, I'd be
paying somewhere between $10 million to $15 million, right? That's 5%
to 7.5% of my cloud spend. That's how I benchmark the TAM for cloud
security.
So, if there's $1 trillion out there, there's got to be a $50 billion
to $75 billion spend on cloud security in the future. If you believe
that's the size of price, the question is, what can I honestly aspire
to. I'm saying half of that will be taken by the public cloud
providers. They will just take it away as part of the ELA business.
There's still half up for grabs. So, there's $25 billion to $37.5
billion opportunity in cloud security in the next ten years. The
current market is $2 billion. So, there's a 17x on the high end and a
10x on the low-end opportunity in ten years, right?
So, I think people have to consume cloud security in its entirety. It's
not one particular module that needs to be consumed. You have to secure
the entire development process, deployment process and production
process. So, it's an arms race. You got to rush fast to make sure you
have the capability and to make sure your customers are deploying you
in their infrastructure. Can I aspire to 25% market share? I got 29%
market share in firewalls, and we were the last player in firewall to
show up and the first player to show up in cloud security. That's how I
think about it.
Saket Kalia
Interesting. I mean, maybe said another way, in that cloud security
market, still a lot of greenfield opportunity, just a lot of...
Nikesh Arora
There's lots of opportunity. You just have to go a grind it out. There
are not enough perfect go-to-market motions being built. There's not
enough solutions architects out there. There's not enough cloud
consumption capability out there. So, there's a lot of work to be done,
but the TAM is huge.
Saket Kalia
Right. I'd love to maybe shift to Cortex a little bit. And there's a
lot to talk about there, I mean, with Xpanse, with XDR, with XSIAM, to
your point. And maybe Xpanse is a good place to start, particularly
with the large U.S. federal deal that we announced last quarter.
Congrats on that, by the way. I mean, maybe the question is, what's the
breadth of that opportunity with Xpanse? And are there other potential
deals out there like that federal deal that -- you remind me of the
size, right, but those are...
Nikesh Arora
It's $125 million deal, of which you recognized $67 million last
quarter. Look, again, I'm sorry to keep twisting your question slightly
differently.
Saket Kalia
No, please.
Nikesh Arora
This past weekend, I spent more hours than I needed to on GPT-3. I
don't know how many of you have been enthralled by this conversation on
GPT-3, it seems to be the talk of town. I was in a Board meeting in a
private company before this, and the whole conversation was how is
GPT-3 going to upend your business model. And now GPT-4 is about to
show up.
And the reason I bring that up is 4.5 years ago, when I started at Palo
Alto Networks, I showed up with two words, because I didn't know
security. I had to show up some value-added. My value added was cloud
and AI. So, cloud, we know the impact. We built cloud security
business. We reoriented our network security business to build a SASE
product, which we're one of two players in the market. And we haven't
seen our AI capability yet. Our entire AI capability is centered around
everything we're doing in Cortex. And we took a point of view that
saying that security is structured.
To do post-breach analysis, security needs to become real time. You
can't do anything real time unless you have good data. So, we spent the
last 4.5 years figuring out how to get good data, which is why we
launched the products 12 weeks ago called Cortex XSIAM. The whole
notion there is you collect all the data you can, you run AI models
against it, and try and remediate security. Xpanse is one aspect of it.
It is the aspect which looks at data which you can see from the outside
in. And Cortex XSIAM looks at it from inside out.
Question is, can you marry outside in, inside out? Outside in would
say, a hacker looks at it and say, "My God, I see seven windows open. I
can go in." And look from inside out saying, "I've locked all doors and
windows. So, wait a bit, what about the seven that you can see from the
outside?" So, it's a way to marry the data from the outside in, inside
out.
So, I think, yes, AI is going to have a huge impact on how real-time
security is deployed. I think everybody's got awareness as of last
weekend that, yes, it's going to be real. It's going to happen. And I
think [indiscernible] we think the next big market that's going to be
created.
So, remember, in the last 4.5 years, we've created three businesses net
new which are going to be hitting the $1 billion mark in the next 12 to
18 months; there's Cortex, there's Prisma Cloud, there's SASE. We think
this whole notion of XSIAM will be our fourth business that gets there
in a similar timeframe that we were able to get the first two
businesses there.
Saket Kalia
So, great segue into XSIAM. And frankly, the way that you positioned it
just an inside looking out, too, makes a ton of sense. Maybe said
another way, it almost feels like a little bit of a cloud-based SIEM
replacement to me. Maybe the question for you...
Nikesh Arora
I think SIEMs are old tech. They're sitting ducks waiting to be
replaced.
Saket Kalia
So, I mean, maybe we can dig into that a little bit. Like how can Palo
disrupt that? What I would argue is a relatively competitive SIEM
market and also...
Nikesh Arora
It's not competitive. It's like you're selling chariots and I'm selling
cars. We do the same thing, right? Horses shit, and cars don't. Sorry.
I don't know why I said that.
Saket Kalia
One of the interesting things, though, that you mentioned about XSIAM
last -- on the last quarterly call was that you kind of -- it felt like
you wanted to balance demand with capacity there, right? Like -- or
just want to be careful with how that scales. Can you just talk to us
about the idea behind that?
Nikesh Arora
Traditionally, the way security resolution happens is you deploy a lot
of security vendors and infrastructure, you set a bunch of policies.
Any time a policy is violated, you get an alert and there's people who
stir at all these alerts and go and figure out what the alert was. If
the other was caused by a bad actor, then you go out and remediate, you
block it, if you haven't blocked it by automated needs.
Remember, if firewall didn't block a bad DNS or bad URL, you have
something else happen, it flips an alert. The alert looks at it and
says, "Oh my God, there's an anomalous activity." Now, we used to get
67,000 alerts a week. It's humanly impossible to interpret them,
analyze them and remediate them. So, you prioritize. That's what a SIEM
does. SIEM says, "I got 67,000 alerts. Let's focus on these 500. These
are very important. They look like bad alerts." Well, there's 66,500
more where the first 500 came from. That 67,000 is becoming 150,000
now, because you are deploying more tech and more vendors. So, this is
not a human problem. This is an automation and the AI problem.
So, what I meant by -- that the SIEM industry is sitting duck is most
people are trying to solve this by giving you prioritization tools and
UEBA tools to say, "Here's a SIEM, collect all the data into a large
data lake, there's a query language that lets you query that database
and you can figure out what happened." Well, if you take through 27
days to figure out what happened, the bad actors in and out and stolen
your data and put it in the dark web. So, you've got to get it to as
real-time as possible.
It's taken us 4.5 years to get our own internal SOC from 27 days to
under one minute. Now, the question is, can I deploy that for all of my
customers? So, instead of going on in a big rush and saying, "Here's
the product. Go deploy it," I'm saying, "I'm going to work the
customers myself." We've done the first nine. We signed design
partnerships. All of them have converted into customers for us in the
last three months. We're going to take them down the journey of
reducing their meantime remediate from 27 days to a lot shorter. And I
think we can prove that model again and again, and we're going to go
partner with a bunch of SIs out there who will then take our product
capability and data execution capability and go take the market on.
That's our plan.
Saket Kalia
Makes sense. Maybe we can go to Prisma SASE. I mean, clearly, a big
change, I think, this year is moving this out of specialist sales and
into your bigger general sales teams, maybe I'll call it. It's still
early, but maybe what are some of the early signals that you're seeing?
And any risks that you want to make sure you manage just around having
too much to sell, maybe focusing on one tool versus the other? How are
you thinking about that?
Nikesh Arora
Look, as I said, I spent the first two years doing product. Now, the
next two, three years, I'm going to spend on making a go-to-market more
efficient and deploying to every customer. At the end of the day, we
used to sell firewalls, right? It's our primary business 4.5 years ago.
Our core sales team out there is the primary -- we used to be a
firewall sales team. We supplemented that with cloud security and
Cortex and SASE. But as we've converged our SASE capability into a
larger network security capability, which is Zero Trust focused, the
functionality is 80% the same; what a firewall does and what a SASE
product does. And we've combined the management pain in such a way that
you can deploy SASE from us or you can deploy entire Zero Trust
framework from Palo Alto, which is pretty consistent.
So, our sales reps are actually not conversion. They're becoming
network security, Zero Trust salespeople, and they say, what is the
problem you're trying to solve? Are you trying to protect your data
inspected? Great. The way to do it is through a hardware firewall or
software or SASE. What hybrid architecture would you like? But don't
forget we have 62,000 firewall customers out there who all want to go
to SASE. So, there is a part which is a transition path from their
existing Palo Alto firewalls to assess the outcome, which is a
combination of what they already have and what we can give them on top.
So, our salespeople need to know how all of that fits together and
work. So, we're not merging two different sales teams, we're making
sure they have a higher order pitch that allows them to present a Zero
Trust solution and we feel comfortable enough that we've made enough
product integration and marketing capability integration and training
that these people can do it in a comprehensive way to all of our
customer base. Now, that gives you more efficiencies even better.
Saket Kalia
Yes, absolutely. I'm going to shift to the Strata firewall part of the
business, but maybe before I go there, any questions here from the
audience?
I guess, Nikesh, if we think about the Strata piece or maybe I'll just
call it the product business, Palo, just like a lot of the other
industry participants are seeing easing supply, but also more scrutiny,
sweating appliances longer [indiscernible]. Now just to be clear,
appliances are a much smaller part of Palo's business. But maybe the
question is, how do you think about demand for appliances in this
coming year, and maybe beyond that, to the extent, you've got a view?
Nikesh Arora
Look, as I said, the firewall-need functionality is not going to go
away. You'll continue to have to inspect traffic. The question is, what
is your use case and what is the best form factor for that inspection.
If your use case is a data center, you better off putting a box, right?
If you use case is a distributed set of 2,000 stores in the country,
you're better using SASE, because you don't want to go send a truck
every year to try and upgrade your boxes in 2,000 different stores. So,
generally, software has a lower total cost of ownership, higher
security, because you can update it simultaneously from a remote
location. So, you want to preference software form factor. There are
specific use cases for hardware form factors, which are low-latency,
high-bandwidth use cases.
I think generally, the firewall requirement doesn't go away. I've heard
the comments perhaps somebody else made recently today, I think the
industry grows at 5% to 8%. I've always maintained that. I think you
get to see 5% to 8% growth. In tough economic times, you go towards the
lower end. In better times, you get to 8% or 10%. I think the last two
years have been confounding. So, nobody actually has a good sense of
what happened.
Most of the industry players did price increases. One or two of them, I
think, they've gotten a bit confused that two price increases of 10%
each can get you to 20% growth on a for -- on a unit per unit basis.
Now some of them, we're not lucky enough, we cannot pass prices to our
customers. In the enterprise space, our customers negotiate our prices.
I increase price by 8%, my yield is 1%. So, I have no intent to keep
increasing price and get a little yield.
If you're servicing the small to mid-size businesses, you get to pass
price to small to mid-size businesses, so you get a better uplift on
your business. Couple that with people ordering ahead, because of the
supply chain issues, couple that with some of our industry competitors
not being able to supply for 12 months, you get a distorted market with
differentiated growth rates, which you're not clear what the annual
growth rate is. I think you get the 5% to 8% growth rate.
Hardware is the easiest thing to postpone, because you already have it
deployed, you can say, "So I did for one more year, buy it another
year." You can't postpone SASE. You can't postpone cloud consumption.
You already paid for it. You can't postpone cloud security. You can't
postpone SOC automation. So, hardware is this susceptible part of the
market, 5% to 8% growth, we feel very comfortable. We can deliver that
-- I think, that kind of sustainable rates for the next two to three
years.
Saket Kalia
Make sense. I'd love to wrap up with just some more specific financial
questions. And maybe we can start with billings and cash. I mean,
clearly, you beat your guide last quarter on billings, but we beat NGS
ARR by a lot more. And so maybe the question is, are there any timing
or duration points that we should keep in mind when...
Nikesh Arora
Are you saying, is that number real?
Saket Kalia
Sorry?
Nikesh Arora
Is that your question? Is that a real growth?
Saket Kalia
No. Of course, it's not...
Nikesh Arora
So, if I miss, you don't like it. If I do well, you don't like it.
Saket Kalia
No, it's more of a question around when will we see that growth come
through billings?
Nikesh Arora
That's not -- there's no lag in financial metrics. I can't add anything
to ARR unlike private companies which is not already in our billings.
Saket Kalia
Okay.
Nikesh Arora
It can only be in my ARR, if it's in my billings.
Saket Kalia
Okay. So, it's not -- so there's no invoicing -- there's no lag in sort
of invoicing versus...
Nikesh Arora
I can't recognize something as potential future revenue if it's not in
my RPO or it's not in my billing.
Saket Kalia
Okay, got it.
Nikesh Arora
Right, mathematically true.
Saket Kalia
Well, RPO for sure, but with billings maybe differently, right, in
terms of invoice versus the contract?
Nikesh Arora
Yes. But remember, I bill for the year. And ARR has this funny word
call A, which is annual. I build it this year, it's annual. What I've
not built for next year is not -- it's next year anyway, it's not this
year's annual.
Saket Kalia
Okay, got it. Understood.
Nikesh Arora
So, there's no gap.
Saket Kalia
Okay.
Nikesh Arora
I think your question -- I shouldn't be answering questions and asking,
but I'll answer it anyway.
Saket Kalia
Yes, please.
Nikesh Arora
I think the question was, why is our NGS ARR growing so well, right?
And generally, the answer is if your billings stay constant, your NGS
ARR does a lot better, that means your non-NGS is now shifting to NGS.
Now you could say our non-NGS is not performing or you could say our
transformation is working, but you wanted to say just truth. We said
we're going to make our entire business cloud enabled, and we're
aggressively converting our business to cloud. So, a lot of our subs
are cloud, a lot of our new products are cloud, a lot of our old
business we are replacing with cloud-delivered capability, which is
part of NGS.
Saket Kalia
Got it? Maybe just in the last couple of minutes that we've got left,
again, one of the things we said at the beginning that I was really
happy to see it was just the profitability, right? I mean, to me, it
was clear that Palo pivoted quickly given the macro backdrop. And I
think we took operating margins up by 50 bps, free cash flow margins up
by 100 bps. You mentioned some front-loading of hiring. Maybe the
question is, are there any other actions that you've taken or plan to
take that give you confidence in driving the higher profitability
despite the more uncertain macro backdrop?
Nikesh Arora
Well, remember, there's revenue and there's cost. Now, with revenue,
you have -- the more you become a [reliable] (ph) business, the more
visibility you have on revenue. So, we have ample visibility in
revenue. Our percent of revenue that we know for next quarter continues
to go up as you get more and more business converted to NGS ARR. So, I
know what my revenues going to be, because they've booked in the past,
right?
So, I have a good sense of my top-line, barring my product sales, which
I do in the quarter. Most of my billings or most of my software sales
in the quarter don't have a huge impact on revenue in the quarter, it
actually benefits next quarter. So, hardware benefits this quarter,
most of everything else benefits next quarter, because most of the
businesses are done in the last three, four weeks, right? So, I have a
reasonably high visibility on my revenue on a quarterly basis, barring
product sales.
On cost, those are in our control, right? And I always maintain that
the bigger our revenue base becomes, the more leverage you have on
profitability, because then you have a lot more revenue to amortize
costs against. So, we're at a point where we have a reasonably good
sense of our cost bases. The macroeconomic environment gives us the
cover to be able to make sure we can do cost-managed things.
When everybody is talking about is hiring people up to -- and there's a
-- two quarters ago, the question you were asking me was, what's going
to happen to wage inflation? There are so many jobs out there. There's
not enough people. There's a talent war. What about attrition? Now,
you're asking me how are you going to maintain cost? Guess what? My
attrition has gone down. My cost of hiring has gone down, right, which
is good for me, because I have less productive people leaving.
Don't underestimate if my attrition is running at 18%. There's a huge
cost of onboarding, a fifth of your workforce gets renewed every year.
That's a lot. Plus, the added people. I'd be at 14,000 people. I joined
Palo Alto with 5,000 people. You do the math. 12,000 people are new to
Palo Alto out of 14,000, just based on attrition. Attrition has gone
away. Wonderful. My cost of onboarding, my costs are training, my cost
of productivities, I mean -- so there is leverage in the system. So,
that's the leverage we're trying to bank on to try to make sure that we
can focus on better operating margins.
Saket Kalia
Absolutely. Maybe the last question here, just in the short amount of
time that we've got left. Capital allocation. I mean just with the
increase in free cash flow margins and just the cash that the business
is generating, how do you think about sort of rank ordering the
priorities that you and the Board have in terms of uses of cash?
Nikesh Arora
You should be asking that question to the FAANG companies. We don't
have a cash -- we don't have excess cash problem. They have excess cash
problem. Look, we have convertibles to pay, $3.6 billion of converts we
have to pay out. We will generate north of $1.5 billion of cash this
year. If we pay all the converts, we'll probably end up with $3
billion, $4 billion in cash. The one silver lining of that big hammer
is I can get interest on my cash now, which I never got in my first 3.5
years at Palo Alto.
Saket Kalia
That's right.
Nikesh Arora
So, we spent a lot of time with our Treasurer. We're trying to maximize
our interest income.
I asked this question, and I will leave that question with you guys and
feel free to e-mail Saket with the answer, because not me. I went to
business school as well, like many of you, and we're taught capital
allocation, and what is that Miller- Modigliani, or whatever?
Saket Kalia
Yes, Miller and Modigliani.
Nikesh Arora
That guy, right? Those two guys, right? And the challenge we have is
that right now, if I use cash to buy back stock, the EPS impact I have
is lower than if I put the money in the bank and get interest. So, then
the question for MBA students is, what would you do? Would you get more
EPS because the market is short-sighted? Or do you rather buy stock,
because long term, your stock is worth a lot more? And I've asked this
question to legendary fund managers, I won't name them, and they've
sided on the, put it in the bank and get more interest income. What do
you think, Saket? He writes every day about everything I do. What do
you think?
Saket Kalia
Yes. No, listen, I mean...
Nikesh Arora
What should I do?
Saket Kalia
Well, I actually really like the chart from the Analyst Day that had a
really balanced...
Nikesh Arora
I'm asking -- answer my question, dude. This is not fair asking one
question, he hedges. What's the answer? Do you want me to do interest
income? Or do you want me to buy back?
Saket Kalia
I would prefer whatever maximizes EPS.
Nikesh Arora
You heard it from here, Saket.
Saket Kalia
Well, with that, guys, I think that's about all the time that we got
with Palo Alto Networks. Nikesh, thank you so much.
Nikesh Arora
Thanks, Saket. Thanks for having me.
